Saturday 9 January 2016

Saudi/Iran: As Two M/East Heavyweights Go To ‘War

The diplomatic row between Saudi Arabia and Iran has continued to trigger various reactions across the globe. More countries have joined Saudi Arabia in severing ties with Iran following the execution of a prominent Shii’te cleric, Nimr Al-Nimr, by the Saudi authority. This is even as some countries are calling for calm before it further escalates. RALIAT AHMED-YUSUF writes on the implication of the diplomatic rift between the two world heavyweights.
As the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia reaches its lowest ebb with the latter cutting off diplomatic ties with Iran as a result of the execution 47 convicts on terrorism charges, including the prominent Shii’te religious leader Nimr al-Nimr, the diplomatic rift may have forced both countries into a hostile and confrontational position as Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threatened that a “divine revenge” awaits the Sunni Muslim.
The blame game seems to be at the peak as Saudi Arabia is accusing Iran of distributing weapons and planting terrorist cells in the region. They have also been linked with extreme practice, spreading their tentacles across the globe including Nigeria. Iran is accusing Saudi Arabia of supporting terrorists and takfiri (radical Sunni) extremists and also executing and suppressing critics inside the country.
Just few days before the rift between Iran and Saudi, the encounter between the members of the Shiite sect and the Nigerian Army will remain a point of reference to so many emerging issues. Very prominent is the involvement of Iran in the social and political twist in the unfolding events.
The atrocities of the Shiite sect have been on for years as corroborated by a resident of Gyellesu in Zaria where Zakzaky settled after he was released from detention’
He said: ‘’The Shiites are authority unto themselves, they don’t respect authority, security and so on. We are Muslims but we discovered that Shiites activities are contrary to Islam. They carry dangerous weapons openly molesting innocent people’’.
Being a political prisoner for almost a decade between (80s and 90s), Zakzaky is not new to controversies having been accused by successive governments for civil disobedience. Zakzaky has had a long running battle with constituted authority in Nigeria. He has been accused of running a parallel government in Northern Nigeria for 40 years.
The Iranian influence on Zakzaky and the Shiite movement became apparent when he was quoted to have said that: ‘’Iran is waxing stronger in Nigeria through me’’ when a Sunni cleric was killed over clashes in Sokoto some years back.So it is not surprising that the Iranian President as soon as Zakzaky was arrested put a call through to President Buhari seeking his release.
There are fears that the row may further stoke fears of another crisis in the already disturbed and war torn region. This is even as more countries have continued to severe ties with the oil rich gulf country, Kuwait being the latest.
Among the countries backing Saudi Arabia are:
Bahrain: A small shii’te majority Island was the first to cut ties with Iran.It accused Iran of training militants and attempting to smuggle arms into the country, which hosts the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet.
Sudan: The country severed its diplomatic ties with Iran and gave its nationals two weeks to leave the country. Sudan once tilted toward Iran, but has been looking to Saudi Arabia for aid since the secession of oil-rich South Sudan in 2011.
Jordan: A very close ally of Saudi Arabia in the region and a beneficiary of Gulf aid. The country has condemned the attack on the Saudi Embassy in Iran.
UAE: While backing Saudi Arabia, the oil rich country of seven emirates may have chosen to reduce rather than completely sever ties because of a long trading history with Iran.
 Kuwait: Among the latest to cut off ties with Iran by recalling its ambassador from Tehran. It is however not immediately clear how Kuwaiti-Iranian diplomatic ties will be affected. Kuwait is home to both Shiites and Sunnis living in peace and has the most free-wheeling political system among all Gulf nations. Djibouti and Jordan have also joined in cutting off bilateral ties with Iran.
More escalation may be seen in the days ahead as both sides are gearing up for a show down with more countries supporting Saudi Arabia’s action. Some countries are however strongly behind Iran.
President Bashar Assad of Syria: Iran has been one of the biggest supporters of Syria since the 1980s and has stood by Assad’s government in his country’s grinding civil war.
Lebanese Hezbollah movement: Hezbollah was founded in 1982 with the help of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards after Israel invaded Lebanon. The group is one of the main Iran-backed factions in the region.
Iraq: Even as the gulf region is enmeshed in a major war against the militant Islamic State group, al-Nimr’s execution sparked outrage among the country’s majority Shiites who have taken to the streets in Baghdad and the south, calling for an end to ties with Saudi Arabia. The Shiite-led government has warmed Riyadh that such executions “would lead to nothing but more destruction.”
Major continental and regional blocs have however called for caution. The U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has urged Saudi Arabia and Iran to support peace efforts in Syria and Yemen and avoid escalating tensions. The European Union which opposes the death penalty, criticised Saudi Arabia’s mass executions and said al-Nimr’s case undermined freedom of expression and basic political rights in the kingdom. The White House has urged Saudi Arabia and Iran to not let their dispute derail efforts to end the Syrian civil war, while President Barack Obama’s administration also hopes to see the Iranian nuclear deal through.
While observers see the decision of Saudi Arabia to execute 47 people on charges related to terrorism including Sheikh al-Nimr as a sovereign issue, it nevertheless has a far reaching effect on various players, foes and friends alike.
Taking the issue of Syria into consideration, the larger question is what the row may mean for the trajectory of the Syrian conflict and future peace talks.
The face- off may probably undermine efforts to end the war in Syria, where Saudi Arabia supports largely the Sunni sect and Iran supports the regime of the embattled President Bashar al-Assad.
According to Ghanem Nuseibeh, founder of London-based consulting firm Cornerstone Global Associates, “Iran is now basically isolated regionally. It will be the main party to suffer from this isolation. They were hoping to reintegrate themselves into the wider world with the nuclear deal and now they’ve actually done quite the opposite.”

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